Mexican tortillerías hold prices as flour and corn costs bite in Sinaloa and Guerrero

Following our Puebla–Morelos roundup, regional masa-and-tortilla groups report fresh cost pressure. In Sinaloa, the industrialists' federation says flour rose MX$450/t in February, sales are down as much as 30%, and 42 tortillerías closed (11 since reopened); the group is seeking federal/state help to hold the kilo near MX$29. In Guerrero, drought cut local maize output by as much as 60%, pushing Costa Chica corn to MX$9,000–10,000/t from MX$6,500–7,000 and forcing purchases from Sinaloa, Jalisco and Michoacán at about 30% more; industrialists say they will hold prices through year-end. In Chiapas, where nearly all shops run on flour, the group says flour suppliers have not raised prices and the kilo holds at MX$18–25.

December corn holds under $5 ahead of Oct. 9 WASDE

Broker desk Walsh Trading (Oct 2) said December ’26 corn settled at 497.75¢/bu (−5), closing under 500¢ after a 502.25 high that session. WSJ market data shows the Oct 5 settle at 497.25¢. USDA’s October WASDE is due Friday, Oct 9. Weekly commodities note for tortilla/masa cost readers; Walsh is broker commentary (solicitation), not research.

USDA FAS: Mexico MY 2026/27 corn output down, imports up — U.S. stays main supplier

USDA FAS GAIN MX2026-0045 (Sep 23, 2026) forecasts Mexico MY 2026/27 corn production near 24.5 MMT (~2% lower y/y) on weak profitability, high inputs, and erratic weather, with corn imports near 26.8 MMT and total corn use ~52.4 MMT. U.S. remains the dominant origin; 2025/26 import mix was ~98% yellow / ~2% white. Text-only commodities brief for U.S. export and masa/tortilla readers.

White-maize squeeze lifts tortilla prices in Puebla and Morelos

Puebla-region masa/tortilla industrialists say April–May harvest reserves are largely gone and private white maize jumped about 29.7% in roughly a month (≈MX$7,400 to MX$9,600/t), with tortilla averages near MX$18/kg and room for MX$19–20 in Puebla/Amozoc. In Morelos, the sector council ties drought scarcity to maize near MX$9,000/t and some shops at MX$30/kg (to MX$32 with delivery). SADER still says inventories are adequate. Framed for U.S. trade readers as white-maize cost context.